Short Nerd Chief

Georgia president proposes doomed eight-team football playoff

Posted by Fred on January 9, 2008

University of Georgia President Michael Adams is pitching an eight-team football playoff:

Adams voted against a playoff proposal offered by fellow Southeastern Conference champion Bernard Machen last spring. But a loss of control at the presidential level and increased competitive parity have changed Adams’ position.

As chairman of the NCAA executive committee, he will advance his proposal at the organization’s annual convention next week.”I find it interesting that our most high-profile sport is the only place where we as presidents have turned the end game over to another group,” Adams said. “There has been a concentration of power among the conference and bowl commissioners. I believe it is time to take the ultimate power out of their hands.”

Adams’ position obviously has less to do with concentrations of power than it does with his university’s football team finishing third in the polls, with no hope of contending for a title, even though they finished the season with seven straight wins (including four over ranked opponents).  Over its last seven games, UGa went 7-0 with an average score of 35-20.  Eventual champion LSU went 6-1 with an average score of 39-27 (aided greatly by a 58-10 thrashing of in-state patsy Louisiana Tech).  In basketball, Georgia may well have received a higher seed. In the BCS, they had no hope. They didn’t win their division, didn’t play in their conference title game, and LSU beat both of the teams that beat Georgia.  The Bulldogs’ season was over the minute the clock hit 0:00 in the Tennessee game.

All cynicism aside regarding Georgia’s deathbed conversion, Adams is (a) absolutely right and (b) tilting at windmills.  The plus-one idea Myles Brand will pitch next week is the best you’re going to get. It would probably have helped Georgia, assuming that they would face LSU in the plus-one game. But it’s still not the answer, because who is to say that it should be LSU vs. Georgia in that game and not USC or Missouri, West Virginia or Kansas or Oklahoma?  No other sport decides its champion based on an opinion poll, and there’s no reason football should either, other than the big piles of cash at the end of the BCS rainbow.

P.S. Save your garbage about a playoff making the regular season meaningless. Are the regular seasons in other sports meaningless? Tell that to  fans in the Bronx, where the Yankees will play a meaningful series against the Sox in mid-April. Or tell that to Bill Self, last seen chewing out his 14-0 Jayhawks in the first half of a game against Loyola (Md.).  A playoff doesn’t make the regular season meaningless.  The current system does make the rest of the season meaningless for teams losing early. This year was a bit of an aberration with the top six teams having two losses, but in most years, Georgia’s season would have become meaningless on September 6,  USC’s on October 6 and Missouri’s on October 13 when they lost to South Carolina, Stanford and Oklahoma, respectively.

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BCS gets it sort of right, should still be taken out back and shot

Posted by Fred on December 3, 2007

ESPN’s Gene Wojciechowski: Chaos doesn’t legitimize ignorance or stupidity of flawed system:

[SEC Commissioner Mike] Slive is a smart, well-intentioned administrator, but when he says, “I don’t see what I would call an NFL-style playoff in the offing,” someone needs to remind him that it isn’t an “NFL-style playoff” we’re talking about. It’s an NCAA-style playoff, the kind of elimination tournament seen in nearly every NCAA sport and every NCAA football division except Division I-A. SEC schools won two of those “NFL-style” playoffs last season. They’re called Final Fours.And when he says he’s looking “very, very hard [at] drilling down into that concept” of a Plus-One format (sort of a seeded, one-game playoff game after the bowls), he’s admitting the BCS has major imperfections. Otherwise, why bother?

Exactly.  Fact is, the BCS is the best system for determining the champion, except for all the others.  This season the BCS probably picked the two best teams, although even that’s not certain.  Is Ohio State better than Georgia?  Ohio State ended up with one loss, but its record includes wins over Youngstown State, Akron and Kent State.  OSU didn’t play a single game against a team ranked in the top 20 at the time (although Illinois certainly should have been, in hindsight).  Georgia lost to Tennessee and South Carolina, but they beat Alabama, Florida, Auburn and Kentucky.  Then again, Georgia also only beat 8-4 Troy by 10 points at home.  And what about USC, Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia or Missouri?  Any of those teams would give the Buckeyes or the Tigers a game, and one or two would probably win.

This year was more clear than some years (at least you don’t have more than two unbeatens), but it will never be so clear a playoff is unnecessary.  The usual arguments against a playoff are spurious at best:

  1. That would mean too many games, or too much travel, or time away from class.  Tell that to the four remaining Division I-AA teams, which seem to be doing just fine.  Richmond and Appalachian State square off next weekend in the semifinals of their playoff, each sporting an 11-2 record.  If either goes on to win the championship, they’ll be 13-2.  If LSU beats Ohio State, they’ll be 12-2.  That one extra game can’t be that strenuous, and even if it is, the playoff would make the SEC championship game unnecessary, so you could have a playoff and keep the poor, tired Tigers at 14 games.  if you honestly believe that the BCS is better because it keeps Glenn Dorsey in class an extra day or two, you’re an idiot.
  2. A playoff would increase the risk of injury.  This is really just the flipside of #1, and equally worthless.  Besides, are there really more injuries in I-AA than in I-A?  Any added injury risk from an extra game is more than made up for by the BCS system, which encourages coaches to leave their starters in blowout games to run up the score in order to impress voters and pad the BCS formula.
  3. A playoff would make the regular season meaningless.  The regular season is already meaningless for all but two of the Division I-A schools.  Georgia’s season was essentially over in the second week when it lost to South Carolina.  Michigan’s season was over in the first week when it lost to Appalachian State.  Lose a starter to injury in week one and drop two games, and your championship hopes are out the window even if you finish 11-2.  The regular season would still have meaning, especially if the field was small, and all games but the championship game were played on campus.  The NFL playoffs include 12 of its 32 teams, but that didn’t make New England-Indianapolis or Dallas-Green Bay meaningless.
  4. A playoff would deprive fans of something to argue about over beer.  I’ll give you that one, but it’s hardly reason to prefer the BCS.  I’ll also give you “a playoff would deprive the NCAA and its sponsors of money, as they wouldn’t be able to cherry-pick Notre Dame (most years) to increase $$ from the bowl game.”  Money is of course the great motivator.  It’s why Kansas got picked over Missouri for the Orange Bowl, and why a team like Hawaii has to go undefeated to play in a BCS bowl at all.

There is no justifiable reason that Division I-A football should be the only one of the 89 NCAA championships not decided entirely on the field.  None.

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KU, Title Contender?

Posted by Fred on November 13, 2007

ku_jayhawk_800x600.jpgIn 1988, the KU football team went 1-10 in Coach Glen Mason’s first year. That campaign featured losses of 56-7 to Auburn, 63-10 to Nebraska, 63-14 to Oklahoma State and 55-17 to Missouri. Overall, the team was outscored 496-189. That year, of course, the basketball team finished 27-11 in Larry Brown’s final season, defeating Oklahoma 83-79 at Kemper Arena to win the national championship. The 1988 Jayhawks held both Nebraska and Oklahoma State to fewer points in basketball than in football.

In the intervening 19 years, the basketball Jayhawks won 25 games or more 13 times, and five times won at least 30 games. The football team enjoyed a 10-2 record and Aloha Bowl appearance in 1992, but were otherwise mediocre to abysmal (4 winning seasons over that span). So how is it that the football team is off to its best start since 1899 and appears in far better position to challenge for a title than the basketball team (#3 in the latest BCS rankings, with a potential date with #4 Oklahoma in the Big XII title game looming)? And as fans, dare we get our hopes up, only to see them dashed in Bell Selfian fashion?

As always, the numbers tell a story. Here is the delta between points scored and points allowed since 2000 (Mark Mangino replaced Terry Allen in 2002):

Year    PF    PA    Delta2000    261    359    -98

2001    182    398    -2162002    248    507    -259

2003    384    396    -122004    262    235    +27

2005    269    264    +52006    348    306    +42

2007 	459    149    +310

Mangino has steadily improved both the offense and the defense.  The offense gets all the headlines, but without an improved defense, this team loses the Colorado and Texas A&M games in which the offense scored a total of 38 points.  I’m not sure I believe in this team yet, which still has to face one-loss Missouri at Arrowhead on November 24 just to qualify to play one-loss Oklahoma on December 1. but it’s a relief to think about something other than another basketball collapse in March.

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