The 2008 NBA draft is tonight, in which Memphis’ Derrick Rose and Kansas State’s Michael Beasley are widely expected to go 1-2 to the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. Although it remains anybody’s guess whether Chicago will go with local point guard Rose or take forward Beasley instead (the current rumor predicts Rose to Chicago and Miami to trade down and take a guard later), both are considered “can’t miss” prospects that will make whatever team they play for better. So I decided to take a look at the last 25 NBA drafts to see how the top pick performed. I used points per game as a metric - a more robust look would account for assists and/or rebounds as well, but the assumption is that the overall #1 pick is going to be a scorer.
| Top NBA Draft Picks 1983-2007 | |||||
| Year | #1 Pick | Team | #2 Pick | Team | Top PPG |
| 2007 | Greg Oden | Portland | Kevin Durant | Seattle | Kevin Durant |
| 2006 | Andrea Bargnani | Toronto | LaMarcus Aldridge | Chicago | Brandon Roy (6, Minnesota) |
| 2005 | Andrew Bogut | Milwaukee | Marvin Williams | Atlanta | Chris Paul (4, New Orleans) |
| 2004 | Dwight Howard | Orlando | Emeka Okafor | Charlotte | Ben Gordon (3, Chicago) |
| 2003 | LeBron James | Cleveland | Darko Milicic | Detroit | LeBron James |
| 2002 | Yao Ming | Houston | Jay Williams | Chicago | Amare Stoudamire (9, Phoenix) |
| 2001 | Kwame Brown | Washington | Tyson Chandler | LA Clippers | Gilbert Arenas (30, Golden State) |
| 2000 | Kenyon Martin | New Jersey | Stromile Swift | Vancouver | Michael Redd (43, Milwaukee) |
| 1999 | Elton Brand | Chicago | Steve Francis | Vancouver | Elton Brand |
| 1998 | Michael Olowokandi | LA Clippers | Mike Bibby | Vancouver | Vince Carter (5, Golden State) |
| 1997 | Tim Duncan | San Antonio | Keith Van Horn | Philadelphia | Tracy McGrady (9, Toronto) |
| 1996 | Allen Iverson | Philadelphia | Marcus Camby | Toronto | Allen Iverson |
| 1995 | Joe Smith | Golden State | Antonio McDyess | LA Clippers | Kevin Garnett (5, Minnesota) |
| 1994 | Glenn Robinson | Milwaukee | Jason Kidd | Dallas | Glenn Robinson |
| 1993 | Chris Webber | Orlando | Shawn Bradley | Philadelphia | Chris Webber |
| 1992 | Shaquille O’Neal | Orlando | Alonzo Mourning | Charlotte | Shaquille O’Neal |
| 1991 | Larry Johnson | Charlotte | Kenny Anderson | New Jersey | Larry Johnson |
| 1990 | Derrick Coleman | New Jersey | Gary Payton | Seattle | Derrick Coleman |
| 1989 | Pervis Ellison | Sacramento | Danny Ferry | LA Clippers | Glen Rice (4, Miami) |
| 1988 | Danny Manning | LA Clippers | Rik Smits | Indiana | Mitch Richmond (5, Golden State) |
| 1987 | David Robinson | San Antonio | Armon Gilliam | Phoenix | David Robinson |
| 1986 | Brad Daugherty | Cleveland | Len Bias | Boston | Brad Daugherty |
| 1985 | Patrick Ewing | New York | Wayman Tisdale | Indiana | Karl Malone (13, Utah) |
| 1984 | Hakeem Olajuwon | Houston | Sam Bowie | Portland | Michael Jordan (3, Chicago) |
| 1983 | Ralph Sampson | Houston | Steve Stipanovich | Indiana | Clyde Drexler (14, Portland) |
Of these 25 drafts, the top pick became the top scorer only 40% of the time. Since 1995, when Kevin Garnett was drafted 5th straight out of high school and which can be considered the start of the Skip College Era, only three of thirteen (23%) top picks topped the scoring chart (although most teams would still take Duncan over McGrady, PPG be damned). So don’t be so sure that either Rose or Beasley will lead their team to the promised land. In many ways, the NBA draft has taken on some of the characteristics of the MLB amateur draft, which also features prospects who have dominated against high school kids more likely to be in the beer line than the starting lineup at your local arena.
The 1984 draft, in which Portland took Kentucky’s Sam Bowie over North Carolina’s Michael Jordan, is probably the most infamous draft of all time. However, for my money, nothing beats the 2000 and 2001 drafts for futility, which led to the NBA’s current effort to force kids to college, at least for a year:
| 2000 | 2001 | |||
| Pick | Player | PPG | Player | PPG |
| 1 | Kenyon Martin | 14.5 | Kwame Brown | 7.5 |
| 2 | Stromile Swift | 8.6 | Tyson Chandler | 8.2 |
| 3 | Darius Miles | 10.6 | Pau Gasol | 18.8 |
| 4 | Marcus Fizer | 9.6 | Eddy Curry | 13.5 |
| 5 | Mike Miller | 14.4 | Jason Richardson | 18.8 |
| 6 | DerMarr Johnson | 6.2 | Shane Battier | 10.3 |
| 7 | Chris Mihm | 7.7 | Eddie Griffin | 7.2 |
| 8 | Jamal Crawford | 14.6 | DeSagana Diop | 2.1 |
| 9 | Joel Przybilla | 4.0 | Rodney White | 7.1 |
| 10 | Keyon Dooling | 6.8 | Joe Johnson | 16.6 |
| 11 | Jerome Moiso | 2.7 | Kedrick Brown | 3.6 |
| 12 | Etan Thomas | 6.2 | Vladimir Radmanovic | 9.5 |
[All data via the invaluable Basketball Reference site]




