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Stat of the Day: Closers in Non-Save Situations

Posted by Fred on April 30, 2008

In last night’s Cleveland-Seattle game, the Tribe trailed 2-1 going into the bottom of the eighth inning, and scored once to make it a tie game going into the ninth.  When faced with this situation (tie game in the ninth at home), conventional baseball wisdom suggests a manager should put his closer in to shut down the opposition in the top of the ninth, and try to win it in the bottom half of the inning.  Eric Wedge is nothing if not a follower of conventional baseball wisdom - in 2007, Joe Borowski entered a tie game in the ninth inning or later nine times, and gave up a run (or more) three times.  In came Rafael Betancourt, who proceeded to give up a 3-run homer to lose the game, which ended up a 7-2 Mariners victory.

Which leads us to the baseball question of the day - is the conventional wisdom correct?  In 2007, 23 relievers earned 20 or more saves, ranging from Bob Wickman’s 20 to Jose Valverde’s 47.  13 of 23 had higher ERAs in non-save situations than in save situations, an average difference in ERA of 1.39.  15 of the 23 had a higher OPS against in non-save situations than in save situations, an average difference of .103 in OPS.  The entire group of closers performed the same in non-save as save situations, primarily because a few were significantly better when no save was on the line (Trevor Hoffman, for example, did not give up an earned run in a non-save situation).  But for the majority of closers, the fact remains that they pitch better when used in their traditional role, something with which Tribe fans are intimately familiar (Borowski’s inflated ERA in 2007 was driven largely by his 9.60 ERA in non-save situations, as his 3.73 ERA in save situations places him more or less in the middle of this list rather than the very bottom).

When pitching in a tie game, 12 of the 23 had a higher OPS than they did overall, and the group as a whole had a slightly higher OPS in tie contests (.624 vs .618).  There is some inherent bias in that number, as it includes games where the closer had a lead and blew the save, resulting in at-bats with a tie score.  In that situation, it is reasonable to believe the OPS would skew higher - those are games where the closer didn’t have his good stuff, after all.

So is the conventional wisdom right? The answer is a definite maybe. Some closers clearly shouldn’t be placed in non-save situations if at all possible:

Player (non-save record) Save ERA Non-Save ERA Difference
Joe Borowski (2-4) 3.73 9.60 5.87
Ryan Dempster (2-5) 3.48 5.80 2.32
Brett Myers (4-4) 1.84 4.12 2.28
Jason Isringhausen (3-0) 1.82 3.23 1.41
Dave Weathers (1-4) 3.02 4.36 1.34

Other closers excel in non-save situations, and putting them in a tie game makes a lot of sense (an argument can even be made that some of these guys should pitch the eighth and not the ninth):

Player (non-save record) Save ERA Non-Save ERA Difference
Trevor Hoffman (3-1) 3.77 0.00 -3.77
Francisco Rodriguez (3-2) 2.96 0.25 -2.71
Brian Fuentes (3-1) 4.18 1.86 -2.32
Jeremy Accardo (4-2) 2.83 1.39 -1.44
Takashi Saito (2-0) 1.87 0.43 -1.44

Which group is Betancourt in?  I have no idea, given that the sample size is so small.  But Wedge should figure it out, rather than assuming that his closer should always enter the game if the score is tied in the ninth at Progressive Field.

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Baseball payroll vs. performance

Posted by Fred on April 29, 2008

salary_performance

Each year, Ben Fry puts together a chart showing how well MLB teams are spending their money, graphically depicting record and payroll.  He’s updated the chart for 2008, discarding the first part of the season as “statistically silly.”  Last year, the LCS included three teams (the Diamondbacks, Rockies and Indians) that were relatively frugal, and this year is shaping up to be more of the same.  The top five records in baseball belong to teams ranking 23rd (Arizona), 8th (Chicago Cubs), 28th (Oakland), 30th (Florida)and 6th (LA Angels). 

No matter how you look at it, spending a lot of money is no longer a guarantee of success.  The six division leaders include Oakland, Chicago White Sox (5th), Baltimore (22nd)/Tampa Bay (29th), Arizona, Chicago Cubs and Florida.  If the playoffs were to start today, the top four payrolls would all be watching at home. The top 5 payrolls (total $739,139,520) are a combined 67-61.  The bottom 5 payrolls (total $217,250,008 or $8.1 million more than the Yankees are spending all by themselves) are 65-63.

It’s similar if you look at individuals.  The three highest paid position players all play in the Bronx.  Alex Rodriguez (.286, 4 HR, 11 RBI) is making $28 million, Jason Giambi (.167, 5 HR, 11 RBI) is making $23.4 million and Derek Jeter (.279, 0 HR, 13 RBI) is making $21.6 million.  Chase Utley, at $7.8 million, is outplaying that trio virtually single-handedly (.359, 10 HR, 21 RBI).  Add in Pat Burrell (.349, 8 HR, 25 RBI) at $14.3 million and the Phillies have 18 HR and 46 RBI for less than the Yankees are paying Giambi.

Pitchers are somewhat similar.  The four highest-paid pitchers are Johan Santana (3-2, 3.12 ERA) at $16.9 million, Andy Pettitte (3-2, 3.23) at $16 million, Carlos Zambrano (4-1, 2.21) at $16 million and Mike Hampton, who hasn’t pitched since 2005 and is currently rehabbing for the Richmond Braves, at $15.9 million.  The MLB leader in wins is Brandon Webb (6-0, 1.98) at $5.5 million.  The ERA leader is Cliff Lee (4-0, 0.28) at $4 million.  The strikeout king is Felix Hernandez (2-1, 2.22, 41 Ks) at $540,000.  The Yankees have four pitchers and ten players overall who make more than those three combined.

[via Kottke]

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Tribe-Yanks Wrap: The Kids Are Alright

Posted by Fred on April 29, 2008

Cue Charles Dickens, with a soundtrack by The Who.  The Indians’ series against the Yankees started out so promisingly, with a 6-4 victory on Friday as the aged Paul Byrd outpitched the aged Andy Pettitte.  The Tribe followed that up with a 4-3 win on Saturday behind Jeremy Sowers’ pitching and Victor Martinez’ walk-off single, running the winning streak to five.  Unfortunately, the Tribe followed those victories with yet another 1-0 loss for C.C. Sabathia (his third in the last two seasons and the 10th game over the past two seasons where the Indians scored 2 runs or fewer for the ace) and a 5-2 loss for Aaron Laffey, leaving them two games under .500 and three games behind the Central-leading White Sox.

The Good

  1. C.C. Sabathia.  It certainly appears that C.C. has regained the form that earned him the AL Cy Young Award in 2007.  After a 6 inning, 0 run, 11 strikeout performance against the Royals, Sabathia pitched 8 innings against the Yankees, giving up only a solo homer to Melky Cabrera while striking out 8 in 8 innings.  Unfortunately, Yankees ace Chien-Ming Wang went him one better, giving up no runs and striking out 9 in his 7 innings and earning the 1-0 victory.  Overall, however, Sabathia has shown dramatic improvement over his last two starts:

      IP/G H ER SO BB %Str Game Score SO/9 BB/9 WHIP OPS
    First 4 starts (0-3) 4.5 32 27 14 14 63% 22 7.0 7.0 2.56 1.170
    Last 2 starts (1-1) 7.0 8 1 19 3 69% 75 12.2 1.9 0.79 .457
    2007 (19-7) 7.1 238 86 209 37 66% 58 7.8 1.4 1.14 .684
  2. The bullpen.  With the exception of Jensen Lewis, who allowed a run of his own and three runs charged to Jeremy Sowers and one to Aaron Laffey in 3⅔ IP, the relief crew was outstanding, allowing no runs in 8⅔ IP on 2 hits, with 5 strikeouts and a walk.  Jorge Julio, Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez allowed only a walk in 5⅔ IP, while Masa Kobayashi pitched 3 innings of scoreless relief, allowing 2 hits and striking out 2.  
  3. Victor Martinez.  The Tribe catcher had 5 hits in 14 AB, including the game-winning hit on Saturday afternoon with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth.  Amazingly, this was the first walk-off hit of Victor’s career.
  4. Jhonny Peralta, Jason Michaels and Franklin Gutierrez. Continuing a recent trend, the Tribe got production from the lower part of the order.  Peralta was 4-for-15 and led the team in RBI for the series with 4.  Michaels had 4 hits in 10 AB, including a double.  Gutierrez continues to come out of his season-long slump, getting 4 hits in 12 AB against the Yankees, including a home run.

The Bad

  1. Travis Hafner.  Pronk continued to struggle at the plate, managing only a pair of singles in 12 AB.  He did walk 4 times and pick up a run and an RBI, but he also struck out 4 times.  For the year, Hafner is hitting only .219 with a .667 OPS.  One big problem is that he is not hitting the ball in the air.  In 2006, Hafner hit 38% ground balls.  In 2007, it was 49%.  this year, it’s 44%.
  2. Casey Blake.  For a time, Blake was the Tribe’s hottest hitter, but now he’s among the coldest.  Against the Yankees, Casey was 1-for-12 with 6 strikeouts. For the season, he’s hitting an anemic .224.
  3. David Dellucci.  Offensively, Dellucci was adequate (3-for-12 with an RBI), but his misplayed line drive in Saturday’s game almost cost the team a win, as he tried to make a diving grab with the bases loaded.  If he plays it straight up, certainly no more than 2 runs score on the hit, and with slow-footed Jason Giambi at second, perhaps only one.

The Ugly

  1. Ryan Garko.  Garko’s trouble at the plate continue, as he had no hits and 3 strikeouts in 11 AB.  Entering the game against the Twins on April 18th, Garko was hitting .315 with a .948 OPS.  Since that time, he has only 3 hits in 34 AB, walking twice and striking out 7 times.  He’s watched his average drop by 88 points and his OPS by 250 in 8 games.

Next up:  the Tribe continues its homestand with three games against the Mariners.  Fausto Carmona (3-1, 2.89 ERA) matches up against Carlos Silva (3-0, 2.83) tonight.  Silva complained of tightness in his right thigh in his last start, when he gave up 2 runs on 6 hits in a 6-inning no decision against Baltimore.  He says he’s good to go for tonight, however.  Carmona looks to shake off a rough outing against Kansas City (which followed a week off and a start postponed due to rain). Tomorrow sees Cliff Lee (4-0, 0.28) and Jarrod Washburn (1-3, 4.03).  Lee will face another relatively weak-hitting lineup - the Mariners are 11th in hitting and 8th in runs in the 14-team AL, although they don’t strike out much (best in baseball with only 122 Ks). Thursday night’s rubber game features Paul Byrd (1-2, 4.85) and Miguel Batista (2-3, 5.26), who lasted only an inning in his last start.

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Cliff Lee’s best start of 2008 (so far): faster, fastball!

Posted by Fred on April 25, 2008

I continue to be amazed by Cliff Lee’s turnaround in 2008.  He looks nothing like the pitcher who was demoted to the minors in 2007, and sits atop the majors with a 0.28 ERA.  Last night was his best start to date, as he pitched a complete game, 3 hit shutout with 9 Ks and no walks.  His personal scoreless streak now sits at 22 innings, as he hasn’t given up a run since allowing a triple and an infield single to lead off the fourth inning on April 13 against the As.  Since allowing that run, he’s given up only 5 hits, with no walks and 21 strikeouts.  Compare his first 4 starts this year to his first 4 last year (and Sabathia’s first 4 starts from his Cy Young season, for good measure):

  W-L CG ShO IP H ER BB SO HR ERA OPS K/BB
Lee - 2008 4-0 1 1 31.2 11 1 2 29 0 0.28 .264 14.5
Lee - 2007 2-0 1 0 26.0 25 12 8 12 2 4.15 .736 1.5
Sabathia 3-0 0 0 28.0 30 7 7 27 3 2.25 .741 3.9

Lee is hitting the strike zone with regularity, as he has thrown 68% strikes (one reason he’s only walked 2 batters in almost 32 innings).  What was interesting about last night’s win was that he used a different mix of pitches than he had been this year, relying largely on a low-90s fastball (Pitch f/x says 3 of last night’s pitches were cutters, which I tend to doubt):

  Fastball Curve Slider Change
Previous Starts 73.7% 8.8% 2.9% 14.6%
4/24/2008 85.0% 5.0% 1.7% 5.8%

It’s not as if Lee was unable to locate his other pitches - all but one of his changeups was a strike, and one of the 9 strikeouts came on a slider.  As he noted after the game, the Royals were swinging through the high heat, so he stuck with the fastball, mixing in off-speed pitches as necessary to keep them honest.  And the results spoke for themselves:

  Total Balls Strikes In play, out In play, no out
Fastball 102 29 60 11 2
Curve 6 3 0 3 0
Slider 2 1 1 0 0
Change 7 2 1 3 1
Cutter 3 0 3 0 0
Total 120 35 65 17 3

Cliff’s location was excellent all night, as the pitch f/x data indicates:

Lee_location_042408

Focus on just the fastballs, and you can see why he relied on them so much:

Lee_location_fastball_042408

As we’ve seen all season, Cliff Lee is just a different pitcher.  His velocity is up, as his fastball (which averaged 90.2 MPH last year) averaged 90.9 MPH last night.  His location is better - last night he threw 72% strikes.  And his movement is better - here’s the pitch f/x chart from last night:

lee_movement_042408

The one potential caveat is that Lee’s opponents aren’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball.  Oakland is hitting .260 (6th in the AL) with a .715 OPS.  Minnesota is hitting .256 (10th in the AL) with a .653 OPS.  Kansas City is hitting .256 (tied for 10th with the Twins) with a .659 OPS.  The three teams rank 5th, 13th and 14th among the 14 AL teams in runs scored. Lee’s next start should come against Seattle, which currently ranks 12th in hitting and 7th in runs, as he’ll miss the Yankees (3rd in hitting and 8th in runs in 2008) this weekend.  Nevertheless, the data looks promising so far, which is good, as Fausto Carmona doesn’t yet have the command he did in 2007 (a pitch f/x analysis for Fausto will come later).

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Tribe-Royals Wrap: The Return of C.C. Edition

Posted by Fred on April 25, 2008

With a sweep of yesterday’s straight doubleheader (hooray for the old school twin bill, and not another of those day-night, can’t lose gate receipts even if it screws the fans travesties) and a sweep of the three-game set in KC, the Tribe secured their first three-game winning streak of the season.  The series showed flashes of the team everyone expected to see, with 25 runs scored in the first two games and some brilliant pitching.  C.C. Sabathia is starting to emerge from his April funk, throwing some good sliders on Tuesday night and striking out 11, and Cliff Lee just gets better with each start.

The Good

  1. Cliff Lee.  Everyone expected the Tribe to have a great 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, but nobody expected it to be Sabathia and Lee.  Following an 8 inning, 2 hit, no run gem in his previous start, Lee outdid himself against the Royals, with a 3 hit, complete game shutout (the first of his career).  He struck out 9 and walked none.  For the season, he’s now 4-0 with an infinitesimal 0.28 ERA.  In his last two starts, he’s pitched 17 innings, giving up 5 hits and 0 ER while striking out 17 and walking none.  He’s got a ridiculous 29-2 K/BB ratio.  Perhaps most impressive was the bottom of the fifth - after giving up a leadoff double to Jose Guillen, Lee proceeded to strike out Billy Butler, Alex Gordon and Miguel Olivo to end the threat.  In that 16 pitch sequence, Lee threw 11 strikes.
  2. C.C. Sabathia.  C.C.’s two previous starts resulted in 18 ER, as Sabathia had serious control problems.  In six inning Tuesday night, the big lefthander struck out 11, giving up 4 hits and walking only 2.  Of his 102 pitches, 67% were strikes (only to be outdone two games later by Lee, who threw 72% of his 120 pitches for strikes).  Most encouraging for Tribe fans is that Sabathia rediscovered his slider, getting most of those 11 Ks on sliders.
  3. Rafael Betancourt.  In his first save opportunity since taking over for the injured and ineffective Joe Borowski, Betancourt gave up one hit in picking up the save.  For the series, he have up a hit and a walk while striking out 3 in two innings.  The bullpen generally pitched well, as Betancourt, Jensen Lewis, Masahide Kobayashi and Jorge Julio combined to pitch 7 innings, giving up a run on 4 hits, 2 walks and 3 strikeouts.  They didn’t give up any homers, which has been the downfall of the pen this year.
  4. Casey Blake. The offense was pretty good overall in this series, hitting .322 with 5 HR and 12 doubles, for a .894 OPS.  Blake had 6 hits and 8 RBI in his 8 AB, including two doubles and a grand slam.  After an incredibly slow start in which his average fell as low as .118, Casey is now hitting .250.

Honorable mention to most of the rest of the lineup.  David Dellucci hit .333 for the series, including the solo homer off Brian Bannister last night that was the difference in the game.  Grady Sizemore hit .357 with a .971 OPS, Jhonny Peralta hit .385 with a 1.077 OPS, and Victor Martinez hit .400 with a 1.000 OPS.

The Bad

  1. Rafael Perez.  While the rest of the bullpen was good, Perez had the one bad outing, managing to make the 9-6 victory in the opening game of the doubleheader closer than it should have been.  Perez allowed 2 runs on 3 hits and a walk in one inning, with the big blast coming on Miguel Olivo’s 2-run homer.
  2. Ryan Garko and Travis Hafner.  While Garko has been one of the Tribe’s few consistent hitters in 2008, he didn’t fare well against the Royals, with just one hit in 13 AB.  Hafner didn’t do much better, with just 3 hits in 14 AB. 

The Ugly

  1. Fausto Carmona.  The resurgence of Cliff Lee couldn’t have come at a better time, as Carmona continues to have trouble locating his sinker.  While his previous start was better, Fausto reverted to form yesterday, walking 4 and giving up 9 hits in 5 innings.  He picked up the win thanks to an offensive outburst, but he’s walking way too many hitters, and won’t always be able to rely on the timely double play ball.  For the year, Carmona has walked 22 in 28 innings over 5 starts.  His WHIP stands at 1.714, up half a runner per inning over 2007.

Up next: the Indians return home for four games against the Yankees in a rematch of the 2007 ALDS.  Paul Byrd (0-2, 4.43 ERA) faces Andy Pettitte (3-1, 2.45) in the opener.  Two youngsters take the mound on Saturday, with Jeremy Sowers called up from Buffalo to fill in for the injured Jake Westbrook.  He’ll be opposed by Ian Kennedy (0-2, 9.64), who needed 86 pitches to get through 2⅔ innings. Sunday is a battle of putative aces, with C.C. Sabathia (1-3, 10.13) facing Chien-Ming Wang (4-0, 3.94).  The doubleheader in KC means that Monday’s finale pits spot starter Aaron Laffey against Mike Mussina (2-3, 4.94).  Laffey was a six-year-old living in Cumberland, MD when Mussina made his debut with the Orioles in 1991.

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C.C. Sabathia Turns A Corner?

Posted by Fred on April 23, 2008

Suffice it to say, C.C. Sabathia’s 6 inning, 0 ER, 11 strikeout performance last night was by far his best start of 2008.  The Game Score of 73 would put it #7 among his starts in 2007, and makes it the team’s third-best start of 2008 (behind Cliff Lee’s last two starts).  In the abstract, it would have been nice to see him pitch beyond the sixth inning, but at 102 pitches and with a 11-0 lead, there was absolutely no reason to do so.  Following consecutive starts in which he gave up 9 runs in each start, this was a delight to watch (perhaps there was actually something to Carl Willis’ comment that he had a good bullpen session).  The question becomes whether this is the Old C.C. back again or the product of a free-swinging Royals team.  Looking at the data, there are promising signs that C.C. has turned some sort of corner.

Coming into this start, it was clear that Sabathia was having trouble locating his pitches, particularly with two strikes.  He had walked an uncharacteristically high 14 batters in 18 innings while striking out only 14.  In addition, he was throwing far fewer sliders than in years past - in 2007, he threw 22% sliders; coming into last night he had thrown only 12% sliders, leading some to suspect an undisclosed injury.

Pitch f/x data from last night indicates that Sabathia did a far better job locating his pitches (thanks as usual to Dan Brooks for the charts).  When he missed he was missing low, rather than off the plate but belt high as in previous starts:

Sabathia_location_042208

This better control was obvious - C.C. only walked two batters while striking out 11, and only had eight 3-ball counts all night.  C.C. also did a better job placing his pitches with two strikes.  He had 41 2-strike counts against the Royals, and threw 60% strikes in such counts.  Of the 15 Royals C.C. took to two strikes, he struck out 11 (73%) and only allowed 3 to reach base (on walks in the fifth and sixth and a third inning single by David DeJesus).  Overall, 67% of Sabathia’s 102 pitches last night were strikes.

C.C. also relied far more on his slider than in previous starts.  Last night, he threw 26% sliders, inducing swinging strikes on 35% of them.  In fact, 60% of the swings-and-misses in last night’s start came on sliders.  Sabathia also relied on the slider as an out pitch, as a full 40% of his two strike pitches were sliders.  9 of Sabathia’s 11 strikeouts were on sliders and 7 of the 8 strikeouts coming on swinging strikes were on sliders.

Count Fastball Slider Change-up
0-2 3 37.5% 3 37.5% 2 25%
1-2 8 50.0% 7 43.8% 1 6.2%
2-2 6 54.5% 5 45.5% 0 0.0%
3-2 3 60.0% 1 20.0% 1 20.0%
Total 20 50.0% 16 40.0% 4 10.0%

Finally, whereas Sabathia’s pitches were relatively flat in his previous 4 starts, he had excellent movement last night, particularly on the slider:

Sabathia_break_042208

Oh, and the offense was pretty good, too, led by Casey Blake’s 4 hit, 6 RBI night, which included two doubles and a grand slam.

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A tale of two pitchers: Sabathia and Lee

Posted by Fred on April 22, 2008

Call it the circle of blogging - first Jason Kottke posts an ode to the knuckleball.  Then I pointed him toward the fascinating pitchf/x charts Josh Kalk has compiled from the Sportvision/MLB data, and Jason posted that.  Then I ended up finding a bunch more pitchf/x resources.  MLB posts the raw data in a bunch of XML files that you can parse via Excel (crudely) or SQL (more sophisticated).  I took a look at Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia to see if there are any trends that may explain why C.C. is winless with a 13.50 ERA and Cliff is undefeated with a 0.40 ERA, when by all accounts those results should be reversed.

Here is some pitch location data for their last respective starts, courtesy of Dan Brooks (Jnai from the Sons of Sam Horn board) and his Totally Unofficial PitchFX Graph Tool.  For C.C., it’s the 11-2 thrashing by the Tigers, in which he got lit up for 9 runs again.  For Cliff, it’s a dominant 4-0 win over the Twins, in which he gave up no runs and struck out 8 in 8 innings:

Sabathia-Lee

C.C. is on the left and Lee on the right.  The sense we all have that Sabathia can’t find the plate would appear to be true.  Further, he is invariably missing belt-high and up on both sides of the plate.  Lee’s pitches are largely in the strike zone, and when he misses he is missing inside to righties and low.  Some of this is undoubtedly explained by Sabathia’s reticence to throw his slider - his percentage of sliders has dropped from 22% in 2007 to 12% this year - and reliance on his changeup.

When C.C. has thrown his slider, it has significantly less break than it did last year.  Here is the horizontal and vertical break data for C.C. in 2007, from Josh Kalk’s data:

C_C__Sabathia_2007 

Here is the same data for 2008 to date:

C_C__Sabathia_2008

Some of this can be explained by the smaller sample size, but the general trend seems clear.  Sabathia’s pitches don’t have the range of movement they had last year - his slider is breaking horizontally out of the zone, but it’s staying essentially flat vertically.  A slider that doesn’t slide is just asking to be turned into a screaming line drive.  Lee’s pitches, on the other hand, are anything but flat.  He doesn’t throw very many sliders (6 so far), but his curve, fastball and change are all breaking vertically and horizontally (as we examined yesterday), making him more effective even though his fastball is 5 MPH slower:

Cliff_Lee

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Tribe-Twins Wrap: Cliff Lee Edition

Posted by Fred on April 21, 2008

Maybe the apparent offensive improvement in last week’s thrashing of the Tigers was an illusion.  maybe Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker are just that good.  In any event, the Tribe offense, which has been largely dormant since the 10-8 opening day win over Chicago, has gone into hibernation again.  In three games at the Metrodome, the Indians lineup hit just .202, managing just 5 extra base hits and 5 runs in 28 innings.  The end result was 2 losses in 3 games, the sole victory being Cliff Lee’s 4-0 gem on Friday night.  Byrd and Westbrook each gave the team a chance to win, yielding a total of 4 runs over their 2 starts, but the offense scored only one run (in yesterday’s 2-1, 10 inning defeat).

The Good

  1. Cliff Lee.  A year after being demoted to Buffalo with an ERA over 6, Cliff Lee is the bright spot in the rotation and one of the stories of the year.  Following a dominant 4-0 win against the Twins, Lee is now 3-0 with a microscopic 0.40 ERA.  He’s yielded 1 ER in 22⅔ IP, allowing only 8 hits and 2 walks while striking out 20.  Against the Twins, he allowed 2 hits and a walk in 8 innings, wiping out 2 of the baserunners on double plays.  He also struck out 8.  More on Lee later.
  2. Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd.  While less dominant than Lee, both Byrd and Westbrook gave the team a chance to win.  On Saturday, Jake allowed 3 runs on 8 hits in 7 innings, with the big blow coming on a 2-run Justin Morneau HR with two outs in the first inning.  Westbrook allowed another run in the second, and then shut the Twins down over the next 5 innings.  Unfortunately, the offense did not manage to score off Nick Blackburn, failing to capitalize on three doubles among 8 hits overall.  Paul Byrd has his second good start in a row on Sunday, allowing a run on 6 hits over 7 innings.  Since walking 4 over 7⅓ IP in his first two starts, Byrd hasn’t walked a batter over 13 IP in his last two starts.  Unfortunately, his teammates again failed to score, as Byrd took a no-decision for the second start in a row (following a 5-3 loss to Boston in which Byrd also game up only one run).
  3. Victor Martinez, Asdrubal Cabrera and Casey Blake.  It’s hard to find much of an offensive bright spot in this series, but Casey Blake was 3-for-10 with a HR and 3 RBI, accounting for almost all of the offense in Friday’s win.  Asdrubal Cabrera had 2 doubles and 2 walks in 7 plate appearances, and Victor Martinez was 4-for-12.  Victor is hitting .360 in 2008, but he is not hitting for power yet - his 18 hits include 16 singles and 2 doubles.

The Bad

  1. The rest of the offense.  Take away Martinez, Cabrera and Blake, and the rest of the team hit just .149 with 12 strikeouts in 67 AB.  Franklin Gutierrez had 2 hits in 11 AB.  Grady Sizemore had 2 hits in 13 AB and struck out 3 times. Travis Hafner was 1-for-8.  Jason Michaels was hitless again and saw only 7 pitches in his 2 AB yesterday.
  2. Rafael Perez.  Last year, Perez was almost unreachable in a set-up role, posting a 1.78 ERA in 60⅔ innings.  He took the loss yesterday, giving up a run on 4 hits over 2 innings.  Over 3 IP in the series, twins hitters hit .357 against Perez, who now boasts a 5.19 ERA and 1.846 WHIP.

The Ugly: take your pick, it was all pretty ugly.

What’s Going On With Cliff Lee?

Again, Cliff Lee is the story of 2008 for the Tribe, the flip side to the debacle that is C.C. Sabathia.  Last year, Lee was 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA.  This year, he’s 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA.  In 2007, opponents hit .284 against him, and lefties hit .327 with a .917 OPS.  In 2008, opponents are hitting just .111, and lefties are hitting .120 with 7 strikeouts in 25 AB.  What is the cause of the turnaround?

Lee is clearly throwing more strikes, although not spectacularly so.  In 3 starts, he’s thrown 66.5% strikes.  In 2007, he threw 64.8% strikes.  Cliff’s problem last year wasn’t walks, however, it was that he was hit and hit hard.  His 2007 average of 3.3 walks per 9 innings was the same as Jake Westbrook’s, and not much higher than Fausto Carmona (2.8 BB/9).  His 10.4 hits per 9 innings was higher than any of the starters other than Paul Byrd (11.2).  In addition, 41% of Lee’s hits in 2007 went for extra bases, leading to that .917 OPS.  In 2008, Lee has lowered those averages to 0.8 BB/9 and 3.2 hits/9.  He’s striking out almost 8 batters per 9 innings.  Of the 8 hits he’s given up, only one has been for extra bases (a triple). So he’s throwing more strikes, but not enough more strikes to explain why he’s not giving up hits.

His pitch selection and velocity are basically the same as last year.  In 2007, he threw 72.3% fastballs; this year, it’s 73.7%.  His velocity is up slightly, from 90.3 MPH to 90.7.  He is throwing more curves this year, with fewer sliders and changeups.  His curves are up from 4.9% to 8.8%.  His sliders are down from 6.1% to 2.9%, while his changeups are down from 16.7% to 14.6%.  Clearly, he feels he can throw the curve for strikes now, whereas he did not last year - he threw 24 curves in 2007, and has already thrown 18 this year.  Statistically, the biggest single change appears to be movement on his pitches, not velocity. Specifically, his vertical movement is similar, if a little less, but his horizontal movement is up materially.  Compare 2007 to 2008:

  Movement in x (in.) Movement in z (in.)
  2008 2007 2008 2007
Fastball 5.66 3.83 11.65 12.85
Curve -6.14 -4.76 -5.94 -5.22
Slider -2.73 -1.29 4.65 6.11
Change 7.99 8.01 9.76 10.13

Whatever the difference is, here’s hoping he keeps it up, and it spreads to C.C.

Next up: three games in Kansas City starting tomorrow night, wrapping up the 8 game road trip.  C.C. Sabathia (0-3, 13.50) faces Gil Meche (1-2, 6.08) on Tuesday.  Fausto Carmona (2-1, 1.96) matches up against Brett Tomko (1-2, 3.60) on Wednesday, followed by Cliff Lee (3-0, 0.40) and Brian Bannister (3-1, 2.42) in Thursday’s finale.  The Tribe then returns home to face the Yankees.

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Tribe-Tigers Wrap: Good, Bad & Ugly

Posted by Fred on April 18, 2008

All hail the power of the team meeting. After watching his team get shellacked by the Tigers 13-2 on Wednesday night, Tribe skipper Eric Wedge called a team meeting, where one imagines there was much ranting and pounding of fists.  The team followed said bull session with a shellacking of their own, pounding the Tigers 11-1 last night.  The efficacy of the team meeting is overstated, of course - these are multimillionaires being paid big bucks to play a game, and probably don’t really respond to being scolded by the schoolmarm.  The real difference?  Detroit’s version of 2008’s C.C. Sabathia was on the hill last night - Justin Verlander is now 0-3 with a 7.03 ERA, having given up at least 4 ER in each start, including losses of 13-2 and 11-1.  Verlander has never enjoyed success against Cleveland - he’s now 3-6 with a 7.03 ERA.

The Good

  1. Fausto Carmona. Sabathia and Carmona both had horrid starts against Oakland.  While Sabathia stunk up the joint against the Tigers, Fausto bounced back with his best start since his 7-2 victory over Chicago on April 2. Coming into the game, Carmona had walked 17 in 16 1/3 innings, but last night he walked only one in 6 1/3.  Coming in, he’d thrown 56% of his pitches for strikes; against the Tigers it was 68%.  The only downside is that he had too many fly balls - his GB/FB ratio was 30-3 in his first two starts, but 4-3 in his last outing at 11-9 last night.  Fausto needs ground balls to win.
  2. The Outfield.  Grady Sizemore was only 1-5, but his one hit was a double, and he didn’t strike out.  Franklin Gutierrez had 3 hits in 7 AB.  David Dellucci had a solo homer in two AB on Wednesday, accounting for half the Tribe runs.  He now sports a .915 OPS over 14 games.  Even Jason Michaels pitched in, going 2-for-5 with 3 RBI and a key outfield assist.
  3. Jamey Carroll.  Supersub (who expected that?) Carroll had 2 hits in 5 AB (including a triple), scored 3 runs and knocked in 2 more.  He’s hitting .308 for the year with a .988 OPS, and has scored 7 runs in 6 games.
  4. Ryan Garko.  The Tribe first baseman had two more hits in 7 AB (including a home run last night), scoring 3 runs and driving in 3.  His .315 average is second only to Victor Martinez, and his .948 OPS is best among the regulars.  He also leads the team in hits, doubles, walks and total bases, and is second in RBI behind Pronk.  Plus, he’s only struck out 6 times in 54 AB.
  5. Craig Breslow and Masahide Kobayashi.  Breslow was about the only bright spot among Tribe pitchers on Wednesday, giving up a hit and a walk in 1 2/3 IP.  Kobayashi gave up a run and 3 hits over his two appearances, which is not fantastic, but at least he’s throwing strikes (21 strikes in 31 pitches).  For the year, Masa sports a 2.84 ERA, although his 1.58 WHIP does give some pause.

The Bad

  1. Travis Hafner.  Pronk had only 1 hit in his 8 AB, although he did make it count with a 2-run homer.  Hafner is hitting only .242 so far, although a third of his hits have been for extra bases and he leads the team in RBI with 12.
  2. The rest of the infield.  While Garko, Martinez and Carroll combined to go 6-for-18 with 6 RBI, the rest of the infield just stunk.  Jhonny Peralta, Andy Marte, Asdrubal Cabrera, Casey Blake and Kelly Shoppach combined to go 2-for-20 with 5 strikeouts and just one RBI.  Peralta is now hitting .237 for the year.  Cabrera is in a serious second-year slump, hitting just .173 with 11 strikeouts.
  3. Tom Mastny and Jensen Lewis.  Over their 1 2/3 innings of work, Jensen and Lewis gave up 2 ER on 2 hits (both by Mastny).  Neither could throw strikes, as they walked 5 of the 12 batters they faced.  Only 43% of their pitches were strikes (Jensen only managed 3 strikes in his 13 pitches).

The Ugly

  1. C.C. Sabathia.  The AL’s reigning Cy Young winner had his fourth bad start in four tries, giving up 9 earned runs for the second start in a row.  He gave up 8 hits and walked 5 in 4 innings, and was booed lustily when he walked off the mound.  His Game Scores (a stat created by Bill James in which 50 is essentially a neutral score) have been 2 and 6.  Compare this to last year, when he had 15 starts with Game Scores above 60 and 7 above 70.  C.C.’s biggest problem appears to be an inability to control his pitches after getting two strikes.  Compare 2008 to 2007 with a two-strike count:
  G AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OPS
2007 34 452 78 17 1 8 20 209 .173 .485
2008 4 47 15 3 0 2 6 14 .319 .911

Last year, C.C. struck out 48% of the hitters he got ahead of 0-2.  This year, it’s 15%.  He’s also having a hard time once he gets to a three-ball count.  Last year, 27% of such plate appearances resulted in a walk.  This year, it’s 61%.  One presumes Sabathia will turn this around and the results will improve, but 18 ER over his last two starts is truly ugly.  His 27 ER allowed lead the team by far - he’s given up more earned runs than the rest of the rotation combined.

Next up: three games in Minnesota.  Cliff Lee (2-0, 0.61 ERA) faces Francisco Liriano (0-1, 7.71) tonight.  Jake Westbrook (1-1, 2.38) matches up against Nick Blackburn (0-1, 3.57) tomorrow afternoon, with Paul Byrd (0-2, 6.08) and Scott Baker (2-0, 4.34) in Sunday’s finale.  Jake’s had hard luck at the Metrodome, going 1-6 with a 4.61 ERA in nine appearances.  Byrd has been the opposite, going 6-1 with a 2.11 ERA in his 9 starts.

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Tribe-Sox Wrap: Good, Bad and Ugly

Posted by Fred on April 16, 2008

The Tribe wrapped up two mostly ugly games against Boston last night, in which they lost two games and a closer.  They should have won both games.  Losing the closer was inevitable.  The series was a microcosm of the season to date in many ways.  Two stats tell the tale of 2008: the relievers can’t keep the ball in the ballpark (9 HR in 41 IP, the same number given up by the starters in twice as many innings) and the bottom of the order can’t hit (Michaels, Cabrera, Gutierrez and Blake have a combined average of .155 with 37 strikeouts).  This held true for this two-game series - the relievers gave up three home runs, including the two ninth inning blasts that won the games for the Sox, and the Quartet of Ineptitude was 2-for-22 with 7 Ks.

The Good

  1. The starters.  Jake Westbrook pitched into the seventh inning Monday night, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) on 7 hits, striking out 5 and walking 3.  He left with a 4-2 lead, only to see Joe Borowski blow what was (hopefully) his second and last save for the Tribe.  Paul Byrd had his first effective start of 2008, pitching 6 innings while giving up no runs on 6 hits, with 6 strikeouts and no walks.  He left with a 2-1 lead, only to see a wild bullpen (4 walks and a HBP in 3 IP) lose the lead on yet another last inning HR (Jason Veritek off Jensen Lewis in the ninth).
  2. The middle of the order.  Travis Hafner had 2 hits, 2 runs and 2 RBI in 8 AB.  Victor Martinez broke out of his slump with 6 hits and 3 RBI in 9 AB.  Ryan Garko had 2 hits, a HBP and 2 RBI in 7 AB.  Together they drove in all 7 of the team’s runs and had 10 of the 15 hits.  Garko (at .319) and Martinez (at .375) are the only Indians hitting over .300 for the year.

The Bad

  1. The relievers.  Together, Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez, Jorge Julio and Jensen Lewis gave up 8 hits, 2 HR and 5 ER in 5 innings of work.  Add in Borowski (more on him later) and the bullpen had a 12.68 ERA for the series (the starters combined for a 0.73 ERA over the two games).
  2. The bottom of the order.  Asdrubal Cabrera was hitless in 6 AB with 3 strikeouts.  Jason Michaels was hitless in 4 AB with one K, including a fly ball on his first pitch with two on in the fourth on Monday night.  Franklin Gutierrez had 1 hit in 7 AB, finishing off the 4th on Monday with a popup and grounding out with two on in the fourth last night.  Casey Blake had one hit in 5 AB.

The Ugly

  1. Joe Borowski.  JoBo entered the game Monday with a chance to save the win for Westbrook.  The 4-2 lead had become 4-3 thanks to an eighth inning homer off Betancourt.  Borowski proceeded to give up a double, bloop single and game-losing HR in two-thirds of an inning, recording his only outs on a sacrifice bunt (that Coco Crisp appeared to beat out) and sacrifice fly.  He immediately went on the DL with an alleged triceps injury.
  2. Eric Wedge.  I’ve generally been supportive of the skipper even when others have not been, but his “loyalty” burned the Tribe this time.  Sometimes it pays off, as when Byrd beat the Yankees in last year’s ALDS despite pleas to start Sabathia on short rest.  Sometimes it doesn’t - Wedge continued to run Borowski out to the mound in the ninth even though he clearly was helpless out there (his ERA for the season stands at 18.00).  Even his two saves weren’t great, as he gave up two walks and a HR in his 2 IP.  His blown saves have been disasters, with 7 ER and 2 more home runs in a total of an inning of work.  Wedge also continues to play Jason Michaels against left-handers, despite his .097 average and .276 OPS.  Dellucci isn’t great, but his OPS is second on the team.  Hell, stick Jamey Carroll out there - he played a half-dozen games in the outfield for Colorado, and is 2-for-8 with 4 runs in 4 games as a backup infielder this year.

Next up: a two-game series against Detroit that looked good on the schedule but now pits the bottom of the AL Central head to head.  C.C. Sabathia (0-2, 11.57) takes the hill tonight, still looking for his first quality start of 2008.  He’ll face Armando Galarraga, who is making his first start for the Tigers (he posted a 6.23 ERA in three appearances, including one start, last September for the Rangers).  Fausto Carmona (1-1, 2.20) goes against Justin Verlander (0-2, 6.52) on Thursday night.  Cleveland roughed up Verlander last year - he was 1-4 with a 8.13 ERA.  For his career, he’s 3-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 9 starts.  In two starts at the Jake last year, he was 0-2, giving up 14 runs on 14 hits and 6 HR in 10 ⅔ innings.

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